Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Phillies are no favorites

The Phillies are a 1/2-game up in the wild card standings and as of yesterday they are getting no respect from the gamblers. They are the third favorite to make the playoffs, according to Web site Vegas Insider.

The Phillies, who opened at 5-1 are now at 2-1, traling the Houston Astros and the Florida Marlins.

A look at the list:

Astros: 3-2
Marlins: 8-5
Phillies: 2-1
Nationals: 7-2
Mets: 9-2

5 Comments:

At 7:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Baseball Prospectus runs a "Postseason odds" report each day, running the remainder of the season' in a simulator 1 million times, and the Phillies chances of knocking the Braves out of first is 10.6%, about the same as the Mets' chances (the Marlins are at 6.2%), and the Phils' chances of the Wild Card are 16.5%, with the Cardinals at 34.1%, the Mets at 16.3% and the Marlins at 11.6%. So the Phillies' chances of making the playoffs are 27.1% in total.

That, and the Phillies' propensity for blowing it, are why I am not excited about September, and I am not avoiding making other plans for October.

Steve F. in Philly

 
At 7:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Baseball Prospectus runs a "Postseason odds" report each day, running the remainder of the season' in a simulator 1 million times, and the Phillies chances of knocking the Braves out of first is 10.6%, about the same as the Mets' chances (the Marlins are at 6.2%), and the Phils' chances of the Wild Card are 16.5%, with the Cardinals at 34.1%, the Mets at 16.3% and the Marlins at 11.6%. So the Phillies' chances of making the playoffs are 27.1% in total.

That, and the Phillies' propensity for blowing it, are why I am not excited about September, and I am not avoiding making other plans for October.

Steve F. in Philly

 
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